Conducted in terms: 2024/25Z, 2025/26Z, 2026/27Z

ISCED code: 0312

ECTS credits: 6

Language: Polish

Organized by: Faculty of Political Science and Security Studies

International Prognoses and Simulations 2751-SM-S2-2-PISM

Lectures:

1. Introduction to issues related to predicting the future—time and conceptions of time, the ontology of the future. The development, significance, and critique of futurology.
2. Theoretical foundations of forecasting: types of forecasts, anchoring and the quality of the forecasting process, principles for using forecasts, the influence of value-based categories, limitations of forecasting in the social sciences, and the international perspective in forecasting international relations
3. Methodological foundations of forecasting: (a) heuristic methods (brainstorming, Delphi, scenarios, cross-impact, the analogy method—analytical and synectic models), as well as (b) time series: trends (and trend extrapolation), periodic and seasonal fluctuations, cyclical fluctuations (and cyclical theories in the social sciences), time series analysis and decomposition, causal analyses (feedback loops), and (c) the most formalized methods: econometric models and simulation analysis.
4. Risk assessment in forecasting the international situation.
5. Forecasting the international situation of major international actors: the U.S., Russia, the PRC, and the EU.
6. Forecasting institutions and selected international forecasts.
7. Selected reports and institutions forecasting the development of the international situation: general geopolitical and economic changes, future conflicts, the development of globalization processes, etc., as well as anticipated changes for individual continents, countries, groups, institutions, etc.

Exercises:

1. Classifications and functions of forecasting and simulation. Main elements, phases, and methods of forecasting.
2. Cognitive biases. Errors in analysis. Successes and failures of open-source analysis: Japan’s surrender in 1945, Khomeini’s revolution in Iran in 1979, the collapse of the USSR in 1991, the Arab Spring in 2011, and Russia’s war against Ukraine in 2014/2022.
3. Forecasting methods: qualitative methods (expert assessment of the situation, the Delphi method, the scenario method, the morphological method, etc.), analytical and structural methods (trend analysis, critical factor analysis, structural analysis, SWOT, PEST/PESTEL, VUCA); OSINT, probabilistic scenario method. Intelligence analysis techniques: analysis of competing hypotheses.
4. Workshop on foreign policy and international relations analysis. Introduction to the preparation of analyses, briefings, and written reports.
5. Foreign policy analysis. Key elements of analysis. Case study.
6. Analysis of conflicts on the international stage. Key elements of conflict analysis. Case study.
7. Strategic culture of states: case study.
8. Forecasting in the context of cognitive warfare. The role of FIMI and DIMI in forecasting strategic moves. Emotions as a tool of influence.
9. Scenario method: case study
10. Simulation and/or wargaming

Term 2024/25Z:

The goal of the subject is to introduce students into forecasting in IR. The first part is focused on giving the background and basic knowledge about the evolution of forecasting; the main methods; ramifications and perspectives.
The next part of the subject is concentrated in deepening the knowledge how to create a forecast, which factors are crucial, and which changeable or unchangeable. Then students study the main prognosis/forecast which were recognized as of the key international importance or the opposite - which were recognized as a failure (and why).
During the classes students practice there knowledge and work on many reports (analyze them), simultaneously prepare there own (individual and team) reports.

Term 2025/26Z:

Term 2026/27Z:

Lectures:

Exercises:

Total student workload

I. Hours with an instructor (3 ECTS): 60 hours – classroom instruction (lectures and seminars) 10 hours – consultations with the instructor 5 hours – review of assigned work, exams, and any necessary corrections II. Student’s independent work (3 ECTS): - 20 hours – reviewing the course literature. - 20 hours – group preparation for an assignment (e.g., report, simulation, wargaming). 15 hours – preparation for an individual assignment (presentation of an analysis, report, or scenario). - 20 hours – preparation for the final exam.

Learning outcomes - knowledge

EK1 - Is familiar with the most important methods of forecasting and simulation in the field of international relations (K_W01). EK2 - Possesses knowledge of historical and current events on the international stage, understands the significance of economic, social, and environmental processes and how they shape one another, which forms the basis for envisioning the future by seeking continuity (K_W03). EK3 – Understands the significance and potential influence of contemporary actors in international relations on shaping the future state of international relations (K_W03).

Learning outcomes - skills

EK4 – Is able to apply the knowledge acquired to attempt to make their own predictions, taking into account the degree of uncertainty involved (K_U10). EK5 – Is able to prepare an oral presentation and a written paper based on the knowledge acquired during lectures, seminars, and the reading of source texts (K_U05).

Learning outcomes - social competencies

EK6 - Is able to think and act creatively with regard to future professional roles (the work of an international relations analyst) (K_K06).

Course coordinators

Agnieszka Bryc

Teaching methods

Exercises: Practical methods—subject-specific exercises Practical methods—the guiding text method Problem-based methods—active learning methods—instructional discussion, computer-based simulations Work based on source materials, discussion, group work Lecture: Informative lecture Expository methods – description Expository methods – explanation or clarification

Observation/demonstration teaching methods

- simulation (simulation games)

Expository teaching methods

- informative (conventional) lecture
- programmed material
- problem-based lecture

Exploratory teaching methods

- round table
- case study
- brainstorming
- Oxford
- practical
- expert panels
- classic problem-solving
- SWOT

Type of course

core frame (attribute withdrawn)

Prerequisites

The basic knowledge in IR.

Assessment criteria

Course Requirements:

The primary criterion for evaluating a student’s work is preparation for class and active participation in class, specifically the discussion, analysis, and debate of the content of selected source texts. Students prepare forecast scenarios and a case study analysis incorporating forecasting elements. They are also evaluated on their ability to present their forecast analysis and defend the hypotheses contained in the scenario. The final grade for the seminars reflects the student’s overall performance throughout the semester:
33% attendance and participation in class
33% completion of assignments (analysis, report, scenarios)
33% teamwork (simulations, wargaming).

Exam / criteria:
- oral exam
- useful: knowledge based on the lectures, basic and additional literature.

Final grade:
51–60%: Satisfactory
61–70%: Satisfactory plus
71–80%: Good
81–90%: Good plus
91–100%: Excellent

Practical placement

Not applicable.

Bibliography

Basic literature:
Zajączkowski W., Rozumieć polityikę międzynarodową. Metody analizy źródeł otwartych, Warszawa: WN Scholar 2025.
Uporządkować rzeczywistość. Poradnik analityczny Ośrodka Studiów Wschodnich, red. Strzelczyk T., Warszawa: OSW 2025.
Wnorowski M., Wargaming. Wprowadzenie do gier wojennych, Bydgoszcz: Centrum Doktryn i Szkolenia Sił Zbrojnych 2022.
Kondrakiewicz D., Prognozowanie i symulacje międzynarodowe, Lublin: IEŚ 2021.
Sułek M., „Prognozowanie i symulacje międzynarodowe”, Warszawa 2010.
Berman, E., Small wars, big data : the information revolution in modern conflict, Princeton University Press, copyright 2018.

Additional literature:
Cieślak M. (red.) Prognozowanie gospodarcze: metody i zastosowania, PWN 2005.
Pietraś, Z. J., Decydowanie polityczne, PWN, 2000.
Pugacewicz, T., Teorie polityki zagranicznej: perspektywa amerykańskiej analizy polityki zagranicznej, Kraków : Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Jagiellońskiego, 2017.
Wojciuk, Metody twórczej pracy grupowej w analizie polityki zagranicznej i dydaktyce stosunków międzynarodowych, w: "Stosunki międzynarodowe", nr 1 -2 (t.43), 2011.
Wieczorkowska G., Wierzbiński A., Statystyka. Analiza Badań społecznych, (wszystkie wydania)Morin, J., Foreign policy analysis: a toolbox, Palgrave Macmillan, 2018.
Raporty z serii Global Forecast (CSIS); COUNTRYWATCH REVIEW, RAND, Brookings, Chattman House, INSS, MGIMO.

Term 2024/25Z:

Literatura podstawowa:
Antoszkiewicz J., Metody heurystyczne. Twórcze rozwiązywanie problemów, Warszawa 1990
Białoskórski, R. Potęga państw 2018: międzynarodowy układ sił w procesie zmian: raport potęgometryczny, ASPRA 2018.
Halpern P., Na tropach przeznaczenia. Z dziejów przewidywania przyszłości, Warszawa 2004
Hughes B.B., Hillebrand E.E., Exploring and Shaping International Futures, London, 2006;
Sadowski W., O decyzjach i prognozach, Łódź 1997;
Sepkowski A., Człowiek a przyszłość, Toruń, 2005;
Siciński A., Rażniewski A., Studia z teorii i metodologii prognozowania społecznego, Warszawa 1976.
Sitek W. Paradoksy socjologicznych prognoz, Wrocław, 2004;
Zeliaś A., Teoria prognozy, Warszawa, 1997.
Sułek M., „Prognozowanie i symulacje międzynarodowe”, Warszawa 2010.

Literatura uzupełniająca:
Carlstrom G., How long will Israel survive? : the threat from within, London : Hurst & Company, 2017.
Ceron A., Curini L., Politics and Big Data: Nowcasting and Forecasting Elections with Social Media, Routledge 2017.
Coker C., Future war, Polity Press, 2015.
Haukkala H., Popescu N., Russian futures: Horizon 2025, Paris : EU Institute for Security Studies, 2016.
Hill Ch., The future of British foreign policy : security and diplomacy in a world after Brexit, Polity, 2019.
Kahneman D. , Pułapki myślenia. O myśleniu szybkim i wolnym, Media Rodzina, Warszawa, 2012.
Missaoui R., Abdessalem T. (eds.), Trends in Social Network. Analysis Information Propagation, User Behavior Modeling, Forecasting, and Vulnerability Assessment, Springer 2017.
Rojas I., Pomares H., (eds.), Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Springer 2018.
Zielonka J., Counter-revolution: liberal Europe in retreat, Oxford : Oxford University Press, 2018.

Raporty z serii Global Forecast (CSIS); COUNTRYWATCH REVIEW,

Term 2025/26Z:

Raporty z serii Global Forecast (CSIS); COUNTRYWATCH REVIEW,

Term 2026/27Z:

Additional literature:
Cieślak M. (red.) Prognozowanie gospodarcze: metody i zastosowania, PWN 2005.
Pietraś, Z. J., Decydowanie polityczne, PWN, 2000.
Pugacewicz, T., Teorie polityki zagranicznej: perspektywa amerykańskiej analizy polityki zagranicznej, Kraków : Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Jagiellońskiego, 2017.
Wojciuk, Metody twórczej pracy grupowej w analizie polityki zagranicznej i dydaktyce stosunków międzynarodowych, w: "Stosunki międzynarodowe", nr 1 -2 (t.43), 2011.
Wieczorkowska G., Wierzbiński A., Statystyka. Analiza Badań społecznych, (wszystkie wydania)Morin, J., Foreign policy analysis: a toolbox, Palgrave Macmillan, 2018.
Raports: Global Forecast (CSIS); COUNTRYWATCH REVIEW, RAND, Brookings, Chattman House, INSS, MGIMO.

Notes

Term 2024/25Z:

Lack of remarks.

Term 2025/26Z:

Lack of remarks.

Term 2026/27Z:

Lack of remarks.

Additional information

Additional information (registration calendar, class conductors, localization and schedules of classes), might be available in the USOSweb system:

Description of 2751-SM-S2-2-PISM in USOSweb