International Prognoses and Simulations 2751-SM-S2-2-PISM

The goal of the subject is to introduce students into forecasting in IR. The first part is focused on giving the background and basic knowledge about the evolution of forecasting; the main methods; ramifications and perspectives.
The next part of the subject is concentrated in deepening the knowledge how to create a forecast, which factors are crucial, and which changeable or unchangeable. Then students study the main prognosis/forecast which were recognized as of the key international importance or the opposite - which were recognized as a failure (and why).
During the classes students practice there knowledge and work on many reports (analyze them), simultaneously prepare there own (individual and team) reports.

The goal of the subject is to introduce students into forecasting in IR. The first part is focused on giving the background and basic knowledge about the evolution of forecasting; the main methods; ramifications and perspectives.
The next part of the subject is concentrated in deepening the knowledge how to create a forecast, which factors are crucial, and which changeable or unchangeable. Then students study the main prognosis/forecast which were recognized as of the key international importance or the opposite - which were recognized as a failure (and why).
During the classes students practice there knowledge and work on many reports (analyze them), simultaneously prepare there own (individual and team) reports.

The goal of the subject is to introduce students into forecasting in IR. The first part is focused on giving the background and basic knowledge about the evolution of forecasting; the main methods; ramifications and perspectives.
The next part of the subject is concentrated in deepening the knowledge how to create a forecast, which factors are crucial, and which changeable or unchangeable. Then students study the main prognosis/forecast which were recognized as of the key international importance or the opposite - which were recognized as a failure (and why).
During the classes students practice there knowledge and work on many reports (analyze them), simultaneously prepare there own (individual and team) reports.

The goal of the subject is to introduce students into forecasting in IR. The first part is focused on giving the background and basic knowledge about the evolution of forecasting; the main methods; ramifications and perspectives.
The next part of the subject is concentrated in deepening the knowledge how to create a forecast, which factors are crucial, and which changeable or unchangeable. Then students study the main prognosis/forecast which were recognized as of the key international importance or the opposite - which were recognized as a failure (and why).
During the classes students practice there knowledge and work on many reports (analyze them), simultaneously prepare there own (individual and team) reports.

Literatura podstawowa:
Antoszkiewicz J., Metody heurystyczne. Twórcze rozwiązywanie problemów, Warszawa 1990
Białoskórski, R. Potęga państw 2018: międzynarodowy układ sił w procesie zmian: raport potęgometryczny, ASPRA 2018.
Halpern P., Na tropach przeznaczenia. Z dziejów przewidywania przyszłości, Warszawa 2004
Hughes B.B., Hillebrand E.E., Exploring and Shaping International Futures, London, 2006;
Sadowski W., O decyzjach i prognozach, Łódź 1997;
Sepkowski A., Człowiek a przyszłość, Toruń, 2005;
Siciński A., Rażniewski A., Studia z teorii i metodologii prognozowania społecznego, Warszawa 1976.
Sitek W. Paradoksy socjologicznych prognoz, Wrocław, 2004;
Zeliaś A., Teoria prognozy, Warszawa, 1997.
Sułek M., „Prognozowanie i symulacje międzynarodowe”, Warszawa 2010.

Literatura uzupełniająca:
Carlstrom G., How long will Israel survive? : the threat from within, London : Hurst & Company, 2017.
Ceron A., Curini L., Politics and Big Data: Nowcasting and Forecasting Elections with Social Media, Routledge 2017.
Coker C., Future war, Polity Press, 2015.
Haukkala H., Popescu N., Russian futures: Horizon 2025, Paris : EU Institute for Security Studies, 2016.
Hill Ch., The future of British foreign policy : security and diplomacy in a world after Brexit, Polity, 2019.
Kahneman D. , Pułapki myślenia. O myśleniu szybkim i wolnym, Media Rodzina, Warszawa, 2012.
Missaoui R., Abdessalem T. (eds.), Trends in Social Network. Analysis Information Propagation, User Behavior Modeling, Forecasting, and Vulnerability Assessment, Springer 2017.
Rojas I., Pomares H., (eds.), Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Springer 2018.
Zielonka J., Counter-revolution: liberal Europe in retreat, Oxford : Oxford University Press, 2018.

Raporty z serii Global Forecast (CSIS); COUNTRYWATCH REVIEW,

Literatura podstawowa:
Antoszkiewicz J., Metody heurystyczne. Twórcze rozwiązywanie problemów, Warszawa 1990
Białoskórski, R. Potęga państw 2018: międzynarodowy układ sił w procesie zmian: raport potęgometryczny, ASPRA 2018.
Halpern P., Na tropach przeznaczenia. Z dziejów przewidywania przyszłości, Warszawa 2004
Hughes B.B., Hillebrand E.E., Exploring and Shaping International Futures, London, 2006;
Sadowski W., O decyzjach i prognozach, Łódź 1997;
Sepkowski A., Człowiek a przyszłość, Toruń, 2005;
Siciński A., Rażniewski A., Studia z teorii i metodologii prognozowania społecznego, Warszawa 1976.
Sitek W. Paradoksy socjologicznych prognoz, Wrocław, 2004;
Zeliaś A., Teoria prognozy, Warszawa, 1997.
Sułek M., „Prognozowanie i symulacje międzynarodowe”, Warszawa 2010.

Literatura uzupełniająca:
Carlstrom G., How long will Israel survive? : the threat from within, London : Hurst & Company, 2017.
Ceron A., Curini L., Politics and Big Data: Nowcasting and Forecasting Elections with Social Media, Routledge 2017.
Coker C., Future war, Polity Press, 2015.
Haukkala H., Popescu N., Russian futures: Horizon 2025, Paris : EU Institute for Security Studies, 2016.
Hill Ch., The future of British foreign policy : security and diplomacy in a world after Brexit, Polity, 2019.
Kahneman D. , Pułapki myślenia. O myśleniu szybkim i wolnym, Media Rodzina, Warszawa, 2012.
Missaoui R., Abdessalem T. (eds.), Trends in Social Network. Analysis Information Propagation, User Behavior Modeling, Forecasting, and Vulnerability Assessment, Springer 2017.
Rojas I., Pomares H., (eds.), Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Springer 2018.
Zielonka J., Counter-revolution: liberal Europe in retreat, Oxford : Oxford University Press, 2018.

Raporty z serii Global Forecast (CSIS); COUNTRYWATCH REVIEW,

Literatura podstawowa:
Antoszkiewicz J., Metody heurystyczne. Twórcze rozwiązywanie problemów, Warszawa 1990
Białoskórski, R. Potęga państw 2018: międzynarodowy układ sił w procesie zmian: raport potęgometryczny, ASPRA 2018.
Halpern P., Na tropach przeznaczenia. Z dziejów przewidywania przyszłości, Warszawa 2004
Hughes B.B., Hillebrand E.E., Exploring and Shaping International Futures, London, 2006;
Sadowski W., O decyzjach i prognozach, Łódź 1997;
Sepkowski A., Człowiek a przyszłość, Toruń, 2005;
Siciński A., Rażniewski A., Studia z teorii i metodologii prognozowania społecznego, Warszawa 1976.
Sitek W. Paradoksy socjologicznych prognoz, Wrocław, 2004;
Zeliaś A., Teoria prognozy, Warszawa, 1997.
Sułek M., „Prognozowanie i symulacje międzynarodowe”, Warszawa 2010.

Literatura uzupełniająca:
Carlstrom G., How long will Israel survive? : the threat from within, London : Hurst & Company, 2017.
Ceron A., Curini L., Politics and Big Data: Nowcasting and Forecasting Elections with Social Media, Routledge 2017.
Coker C., Future war, Polity Press, 2015.
Haukkala H., Popescu N., Russian futures: Horizon 2025, Paris : EU Institute for Security Studies, 2016.
Hill Ch., The future of British foreign policy : security and diplomacy in a world after Brexit, Polity, 2019.
Kahneman D. , Pułapki myślenia. O myśleniu szybkim i wolnym, Media Rodzina, Warszawa, 2012.
Missaoui R., Abdessalem T. (eds.), Trends in Social Network. Analysis Information Propagation, User Behavior Modeling, Forecasting, and Vulnerability Assessment, Springer 2017.
Rojas I., Pomares H., (eds.), Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Springer 2018.
Zielonka J., Counter-revolution: liberal Europe in retreat, Oxford : Oxford University Press, 2018.

Raporty z serii Global Forecast (CSIS); COUNTRYWATCH REVIEW,

Literatura podstawowa:
Antoszkiewicz J., Metody heurystyczne. Twórcze rozwiązywanie problemów, Warszawa 1990
Białoskórski, R. Potęga państw 2018: międzynarodowy układ sił w procesie zmian: raport potęgometryczny, ASPRA 2018.
Halpern P., Na tropach przeznaczenia. Z dziejów przewidywania przyszłości, Warszawa 2004
Hughes B.B., Hillebrand E.E., Exploring and Shaping International Futures, London, 2006;
Sadowski W., O decyzjach i prognozach, Łódź 1997;
Sepkowski A., Człowiek a przyszłość, Toruń, 2005;
Siciński A., Rażniewski A., Studia z teorii i metodologii prognozowania społecznego, Warszawa 1976.
Sitek W. Paradoksy socjologicznych prognoz, Wrocław, 2004;
Zeliaś A., Teoria prognozy, Warszawa, 1997.
Sułek M., „Prognozowanie i symulacje międzynarodowe”, Warszawa 2010.

Literatura uzupełniająca:
Carlstrom G., How long will Israel survive? : the threat from within, London : Hurst & Company, 2017.
Ceron A., Curini L., Politics and Big Data: Nowcasting and Forecasting Elections with Social Media, Routledge 2017.
Coker C., Future war, Polity Press, 2015.
Haukkala H., Popescu N., Russian futures: Horizon 2025, Paris : EU Institute for Security Studies, 2016.
Hill Ch., The future of British foreign policy : security and diplomacy in a world after Brexit, Polity, 2019.
Kahneman D. , Pułapki myślenia. O myśleniu szybkim i wolnym, Media Rodzina, Warszawa, 2012.
Missaoui R., Abdessalem T. (eds.), Trends in Social Network. Analysis Information Propagation, User Behavior Modeling, Forecasting, and Vulnerability Assessment, Springer 2017.
Rojas I., Pomares H., (eds.), Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Springer 2018.
Zielonka J., Counter-revolution: liberal Europe in retreat, Oxford : Oxford University Press, 2018.

Raporty z serii Global Forecast (CSIS); COUNTRYWATCH REVIEW,

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