Forecasting in International Relations 2751-SM-S1-2-BEG-PSM

1. Introduction to forecasting international relations. Main categories, models, assumptions, and limitations of futurology. Quantitative research vs. qualitative research.
2. Research methods in forecasting international relations. Game theory. The role of FIMI and DIMI in forecasting international relations. Foreign policy analysis.
3. Strategic culture of states—Poland, the Russian Federation, Germany, the U.S., China, Ukraine, Israel, and others.
4. Workshop on foreign policy and international relations analysis. Introduction to analyses, briefings, and written reports.
5. Cognitive biases. Errors in analysis. Successes and failures of open-source analysis: Japan’s surrender in 1945, Khomeini’s revolution in Iran in 1979, the collapse of the USSR in 1991, the Arab Spring in 2011, and Russia’s war against Ukraine in 2014/2022.
6. AI and big data in strategic forecasting
7. Analysis of international reports—a critical perspective.
8. Simulation and/or wargaming.

Term 2024/25L:

Term 2025/26L:

Term 2026/27L:

Total student workload

I. Hours with an instructor (1.5 ECTS) 30 hours of class time 5 hours of office hours with the instructor 2.5 hours of discussion of assigned work II. Student’s independent work (1.5 ECTS) 10 hours of preparation for in-class discussions and tasks completed during class (analysis, briefing) 10 hours of preparation for a group assignment (presentation, report, analysis) 7,5 hours of preparation for a simulation/war game

Learning outcomes - knowledge

LE1: The student is familiar with the basic categories of analysis and forecasting in international relations (K_W01) LE2: The student has knowledge of historical and current events on the international stage, understands the significance of economic, social, and environmental processes and how they shape one another, which forms the basis for envisioning the future by seeking continuity (K_W02).

Learning outcomes - skills

LE3: Is able to apply this knowledge to attempt to develop their own forecasts, taking into account the degree of uncertainty involved (K_U07). LE4: Is able to prepare an oral presentation and a written paper based on the knowledge acquired during lectures, seminars, and the reading of source texts (K_U05).

Learning outcomes - social competencies

LE5 - is able to analyze (in a team as well) various complexity of IR. (K_K05).

Course coordinators

Agnieszka Bryc

Teaching methods

Exercises: Exploratory teaching methods: case studies, SWOT analysis, brainstorming, the Oxford method Practical methods—the guiding text method Problem-based methods—active learning methods—instructional discussion, simulations Work based on source materials, discussion, group work

Observation/demonstration teaching methods

- simulation (simulation games)

Expository teaching methods

- description

Exploratory teaching methods

- Oxford
- brainstorming
- expert panels
- SWOT
- round table
- case study

Online teaching methods

- cooperation-based methods
- games and simulations
- exchange and discussion methods
- content-presentation-oriented methods

Type of course

elective course

Prerequisites

No preconditions.

Assessment criteria

The primary criterion for evaluating a student’s work is their preparation for and active participation in class sessions, specifically the discussion, analysis, and examination of the content of selected source texts. Students prepare forecast scenarios and case study analyses that include forecasting elements. They are also evaluated on their ability to present their forecast analysis and defend the hypotheses contained in the scenario.
The final grade for the seminars reflects the student’s overall performance throughout the semester:
33% attendance and participation in class
33% completion of assignments (analysis, report, scenarios)
33% teamwork (simulations, wargaming).

Final grade:
51–60%: satisfactory
61–70%: satisfactory plus
71–80%: good
81–90%: good plus
91–100%: excellent

Practical placement

Not applicable.

Bibliography

Zajączkowski W., Rozumieć polityikę międzynarodową. Metody analizy źródeł otwartych, Warszawa: WN Scholar 2025.
Uporządkować rzeczywistość. Poradnik analityczny Ośrodka Studiów Wschodnich, red. Strzelczyk T., Warszawa: OSW 2025.
Wnorowski M., Wargaming. Wprowadzenie do gier wojennych, Bydgoszcz: Centrum Doktryn i Szkolenia Sił Zbrojnych 2022.
Kondrakiewicz D., Prognozowanie i symulacje międzynarodowe, Lublin: IEŚ 2021.
Sułek M., „Prognozowanie i symulacje międzynarodowe”, Warszawa 2010.
Berman, E., Small wars, big data : the information revolution in modern conflict, Princeton University Press, copyright 2018.
Cieślak M. (red.) Prognozowanie gospodarcze: metody i zastosowania, PWN 2005.
Pietraś, Z. J., Decydowanie polityczne, PWN, 2000.
Pugacewicz, T., Teorie polityki zagranicznej: perspektywa amerykańskiej analizy polityki zagranicznej, Kraków : Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Jagiellońskiego, 2017.
Wojciuk, Metody twórczej pracy grupowej w analizie polityki zagranicznej i dydaktyce stosunków międzynarodowych, w: "Stosunki międzynarodowe", nr 1 -2 (t.43), 2011.
Wieczorkowska G., Wierzbiński A., Statystyka. Analiza Badań społecznych, (wszystkie wydania)Morin, J., Foreign policy analysis: a toolbox, Palgrave Macmillan, 2018.
Raporty z serii Global Forecast (CSIS); COUNTRYWATCH REVIEW, RAND, Brookings, Chattman House, INSS, MGIMO.

Term 2024/25L:

Term 2025/26L:

Term 2026/27L:

Notes

Term 2024/25L:

No remarks.

Term 2025/26L:

No remarks.

Term 2026/27L:

No remarks.

Additional information

Additional information (registration calendar, class conductors, localization and schedules of classes), might be available in the USOSweb system:

Description of 2751-SM-S1-2-BEG-PSM in USOSweb