Forecasting and Modeling
2751-PL-S2-PM
1 Introduction to forecasting and modelling. Contemporary trends in forecasting and modelling the political future.
2. The VUCA model: managing under volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity.
3. Risk modelling, equilibrium and power cycle models., de-escalation, conflict-free, Strategic forecasting.
4. AI in forecasting research and political modelling.
5. Decision games and wargaming.
Total student workload
Total: 2 ECTS credits
1. Hours spent with the teacher (1.2 ECTS):
a. Teaching hours: 15 hours
b. Time required for face-to-face consultations, online consultations, and email correspondence with the instructor: 10 hours
c. Time required to review the results of assignments completed during class and submitted at the end of the course + discussion of individual final projects (discussion of final projects): 5 hours
2. Time devoted to individual student work required to successfully complete the course (0.75 ECTS):
a. Familiarization with the instructions for the programs used in class: 2 hours
b. Time required to prepare the final assignment: 8 hours
c. Familiarization with the literature: 10 hours
Total: 30 + 20 = 50 hours
Learning outcomes - knowledge
- Student understands the terms of forecasting and modelling (K_W01).
- They know the main forecasting models.
- They have in-depth knowledge of how internal and international policy mechanisms function (K_W03).
Learning outcomes - skills
- Student can analyse and forecast political processes (K_U08).
- They can apply modelling and forecasting methods (K_U02).
- The student can organise and work in a team (K_U07).
Learning outcomes - social competencies
- The student is prepared to deepen their knowledge necessary in the process of forecasting and modeling political processes (K_K01)
- The student is prepared to critically evaluate information necessary in the process of forecasting and modeling political processes (K_K02)
Teaching methods
Conversational:
Expository methods: simulation games.
Demonstrative methods: description.
Exploratory methods: exchange of ideas, expert tables, case study, SWOT, situational.
Methods in online learning: relating to authentic situations; for content presentation, exchange and discussion.
Observation/demonstration teaching methods
- simulation (simulation games)
Expository teaching methods
- description
Exploratory teaching methods
- case study
- situational
- expert panels
- SWOT
- brainstorming
Online teaching methods
- methods referring to authentic or fictitious situations
- exchange and discussion methods
- content-presentation-oriented methods
Type of course
compulsory course
Prerequisites
None.
Course coordinators
Assessment criteria
The basic criteria for assessing student work are preparation for classes and attendance. (1/2 of the grade)
Students prepare individually and in teams a forecast model, case study, or future development scenario. (1/4 of the grade)
The ability to present and defend the hypotheses contained in the scenario is also assessed. (1/4 of the grade)
0-50% unsatisfactory
51-60% satisfactory
61-70% satisfactory plus
71-80% good
81-90% good plus
91-100% very good
Practical placement
Bibliography
Jacek Ziemowit Pietraś, Decydowanie polityczne, Warszawa-Kraków 1998.
J. Antoszkiewicz, Metody heurystyczne. Twórcze rozwiązywanie problemów, PWE, Warszawa 1990.
Ignacio Rojas, Héctor Pomares, Olga Valenzuela (eds.), Time Series
Analysis and Forecasting, Springer 2017.
Mirosław Wnorowski, Wargaming. An Introduction to War Games, Center for Doctrine and Training of the Armed Forces, Bydgoszcz 2022.
Andrea Ceron, Luigi Curini, Stefano M. Iacus, Politics and Big Date. Nowcasting and Forecasting Elections with Social Media, Routledge 2017.
Erik Lin-Greenberg, Wargaming for International Relations Research, European Journal of International Relations Vol. 28, No. 1 (2022).
Aggie Hirst, Politics of Play: Wargaming with the US Military, Oxford University Press 2024.
Simon Sharp , AI in Politics: Election Forecasting, Campaign Strategies, and Governance 2023
M. Sułek, Potęga państw - modele i zastosowania, Wydawnictwo Rambler,Warszawa 2013.
|
Term 2024/25Z:
Jacek Ziemowit Pietraś, Decydowanie polityczne, Warszawa-Kraków 1998.
J. Antoszkiewicz, Metody heurystyczne. Twórcze rozwiązywanie problemów, PWE, Warszawa 1990.
Ignacio Rojas, Héctor Pomares, Olga Valenzuela (eds.), Time Series
Analysis and Forecasting, Springer 2017.
Mirosław Wnorowski, Wargaming. An Introduction to War Games, Center for Doctrine and Training of the Armed Forces, Bydgoszcz 2022.
Andrea Ceron, Luigi Curini, Stefano M. Iacus, Politics and Big Date. Nowcasting and Forecasting Elections with Social Media, Routledge 2017.
Erik Lin-Greenberg, Wargaming for International Relations Research, European Journal of International Relations Vol. 28, No. 1 (2022).
Aggie Hirst, Politics of Play: Wargaming with the US Military, Oxford University Press 2024.
Simon Sharp , AI in Politics: Election Forecasting, Campaign Strategies, and Governance 2023
M. Sułek, Potęga państw - modele i zastosowania, Wydawnictwo Rambler,Warszawa 2013. |
Term 2025/26L:
Jacek Ziemowit Pietraś, Decydowanie polityczne, Warszawa-Kraków 1998.
J. Antoszkiewicz, Metody heurystyczne. Twórcze rozwiązywanie problemów, PWE, Warszawa 1990.
Ignacio Rojas, Héctor Pomares, Olga Valenzuela (eds.), Time Series
Analysis and Forecasting, Springer 2017.
Mirosław Wnorowski, Wargaming. An Introduction to War Games, Center for Doctrine and Training of the Armed Forces, Bydgoszcz 2022.
Andrea Ceron, Luigi Curini, Stefano M. Iacus, Politics and Big Date. Nowcasting and Forecasting Elections with Social Media, Routledge 2017.
Additional:
Wojciech Zajączkowski, Understanding International Politics: Methods of Open Source Analysis, WN Scholar 2025.
Erik Lin-Greenberg, Wargaming for International Relations Research, European Journal of International Relations Vol. 28, No. 1 (2022).
Aggie Hirst, Politics of Play: Wargaming with the US Military, Oxford University Press 2024.
Simon Sharp , AI in Politics: Election Forecasting, Campaign Strategies, and Governance 2023
M. Sułek, Potęga państw - modele i zastosowania, Wydawnictwo Rambler,Warszawa 2013. |
Notes
|
Term 2024/25Z:
|
Term 2025/26L:
|
Additional information
Additional information (registration calendar, class conductors,
localization and schedules of classes), might be available in the USOSweb system: