Forecasting and Modeling 2751-PL-S2-PM

1 Introduction to forecasting and modelling. Contemporary trends in forecasting and modelling the political future.
2. The VUCA model: managing under volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity.
3. Risk modelling, equilibrium and power cycle models., de-escalation, conflict-free, Strategic forecasting.
4. AI in forecasting research and political modelling.
5. Decision games and wargaming.

Total student workload

Contact hours: 15 hours Individual work: 10 hours preparation for class discussion, including presentation of findings 10 hours preparation of team projects;

Learning outcomes - knowledge

K_W03 The graduate knows the relations between social and political structures and institutions on a national, international scale K_W04 The graduate has knowledge of the role of human beings, groups in social and political life and their interactions with the social environment

Learning outcomes - skills

K_U01 The graduate identifies, interprets and explains complex social phenomena, especially political phenomena K_U08 The graduate is able to analyse and forecast political processes and phenomena in the context of political science and administration

Learning outcomes - social competencies

K_K01 Absolwent jest gotów do zdobywania wiedzy, informacji i danych potrzebnych w procesie rozwiązywania praktycznych problemów w życiu zawodowym ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem problemów z obszaru nauk o polityce i administracji K_K02 Absolwent krytycznie ocenia posiadaną wiedzę oraz odbierane informacji z zakresu nauk o polityce i administracji

Teaching methods

Conversational: Expository methods: simulation games. Demonstrative methods: description. Exploratory methods: exchange of ideas, expert tables, case study, SWOT, situational. Methods in online learning: relating to authentic situations; for content presentation, exchange and discussion.

Observation/demonstration teaching methods

- simulation (simulation games)

Expository teaching methods

- description

Exploratory teaching methods

- case study
- situational
- expert panels
- SWOT
- brainstorming

Online teaching methods

- methods referring to authentic or fictitious situations
- exchange and discussion methods
- content-presentation-oriented methods

Type of course

compulsory course

Prerequisites

None.

Course coordinators

Agnieszka Bryc

Assessment criteria

The basic criterion for assessment of student work is preparation for classes and attendance at classes.
The student prepares individually and in teams a forecast model, a case study or a future development scenario.
Also assessed is the student's ability to present their forecasting analysis and their ability to defend the hypotheses contained in the scenario.

Practical placement

None.

Bibliography

Jacek Ziemowit Pietraś, Decydowanie polityczne, Warszawa-Kraków 1998.
J. Antoszkiewicz, Metody heurystyczne. Twórcze rozwiązywanie problemów, PWE, Warszawa 1990.
Ignacio Rojas, Héctor Pomares, Olga Valenzuela (eds.), Time Series
Analysis and Forecasting, Springer 2017.
Andrea Ceron, Luigi Curini, Stefano M. Iacus, Politics and Big Date. Nowcasting and Forecasting Elections with Social Media, Routledge 2017.
Erik Lin-Greenberg, Wargaming for International Relations Research, European Journal of International Relations Vol. 28, No. 1 (2022).
Aggie Hirst, Politics of Play: Wargaming with the US Military, Oxford University Press 2024.
Simon Sharp , AI in Politics: Election Forecasting, Campaign Strategies, and Governance 2023
M. Sułek, Potęga państw - modele i zastosowania, Wydawnictwo Rambler,Warszawa 2013.

Additional information

Additional information (registration calendar, class conductors, localization and schedules of classes), might be available in the USOSweb system:

Description of 2751-PL-S2-PM in USOSweb