Economic Forecasting 1155-12-M13-EcFo

1. Forecasting methods – a classification
2. Forecasting horizon
3. The quality of business forecasts
4. Trend-line extrapolation
5. Seasonal model in forecasting
6. AR model in forecasting
7. Exponential smoothing and moving averages
8. Econometric model in forecasting and simple simulations
9. Qualitative methods in forecasting (questionaire, analogy)

Total student workload

Contact hours with teacher: - participation in lectures - 15 hrs - workshop in computer laboratory - 15 hrs - consultations – 10 hrs Self-study hours: - preparation for lectures - 5 hrs - writing projects - 10 hrs - preparation for test - 10 hrs - preparation for examination- 10 hrs Altogether: 75 hrs ( 3 ECTS)

Learning outcomes - knowledge

Student W1: has basic knowledge of methods of economic forecasting K-KW08 W2: knows application of forecasting in management K_KW08 W3: is familiar with computer packages used in forecasting K_KW08

Learning outcomes - skills

Student U1: is able to prepare forecast using time series methods K_KU05 U2: is capable of comparing accuracy of different forecasts K_KU05 U3: has advanced skills in using Gretl and MS Excel for forecasting K_KU05 U4: formulates his opinion on the forecasting problem K_KU12

Learning outcomes - social competencies

Student K1: understands the importance of forecasting in business decision making K_K01

Teaching methods

Expository teaching methods: - informative lecture - case study - computations using computer software

Prerequisites

Basic statistics, Principles of Econometrics

Course coordinators

Jacek Kwiatkowski

Assessment criteria

Assessment methods:
- written examination W1, W2, K1
- test in the computer laboratory W3, U2, U3
- individual project U1, U4, K1
- activity U4, K1
Assessment criteria:
Lecture (a test):
fail - 10 pts (50%)
satisfactory- 11-12 pts (51-60%)
satisfactory plus- 13-14 pts (61-70%)
good – 15-16 pts (71-80%)
good plus- 17-18 pts (81-90%)
very good- 19-20 pts (91-100%)
Workshop (a test in the laboratory):
fail - 10 pts (50%)
satisfactory- 11-12 pts (51-60%)
satisfactory plus- 13-14 pts (61-70%)
good – 15-16 pts (71-80%)
good plus- 17-18 pts (81-90%)
very good- 19-20 pts (91-100%)
individual project:
fail - 50 pts (50%)
satisfactory- 51-60 pts (51-60%)
satisfactory plus- 61-70 pts (61-70%)
good – 71-80 pts (71-80%)
good plus- 81-90 pts (81-90%)
very good- 91-100 pts (91-100%)

Additional information

Additional information (registration calendar, class conductors, localization and schedules of classes), might be available in the USOSweb system:

Description of 1155-12-M13-EcFo in USOSweb